For the week ending May 21, BA.2.12.1 accounted for almost 58 percent of new cases. BA.2 has dropped in prevalence to 39 percent. The original omicron variant, B1.1.529 — and its subvariant BA.1.1 that soon followed and dominated the United States in late January — now make up about 3 percent of cases. The BA.2.12.1 subvariant was first noticed in central New York and surrounding areas in mid-April, when the State Department of Health announced that BA.2.12.1 and BA.2.12 were contributing to local virus transmission, calling these variants “highly contagious.” These sub-subvariants have been estimated to have a 23 to 27 percent growth advantage beyond the first BA.2 variant, and they are driving the fifth wave of virus in New York City, which is on “high COVID alert.” According to tracking by The New York Times, the United States is again averaging more than 100,000 cases per day for the first time since mid-February. Nationally, hospitalizations have shot up by 28 percent over the past two weeks to an average of 24,700.
Concern Over Variants but Not Yet Alarm
The appearance and fast spread of new variants has triggered concern among public health officials as newer versions of the virus appear better able to evade protection from vaccines. William Schaffner, MD, an infectious-disease specialist and a professor of preventive medicine and health policy at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee, says the public has no need to be overly alarmed — especially if they are vaccinated. Even though the new subvariants have a propensity to infect those who are vaccinated and boosted [called “breakthrough” infections], Dr. Schaffner believes they are unlikely to create severe disease, according to the latest evidence. “Our current vaccines provide good protection against hospitalization,” Schaffner says. “So in terms of the largest public health problem — severe disease — we’re in good shape.” The White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, Ashish Jha, MD, MPH, said in a recent press conference that public health officials are keeping a close watch on the latest versions of the virus. “They [BA.2.12.1 infections] are more contagious with more immune escape, and they are driving a lot of the increases in infection that we’re seeing across the nation right now,” he said. “And that is a huge challenge.” On PBS News Weekend May 21, Dr. Jha told viewers that he understands how we all want to be done with the virus — but the virus simply isn’t done with us. “As we look to the fall and winter, what I’m paying attention to right now is watching the virus evolve,” he said. ”We’ve got to pay very close attention to what happens if we do see a new wave of infections. We want to be ready with a new generation of vaccines, treatments.”
Infections Climb Worldwide
The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, warned on May 22 that the COVID-19 pandemic is “most certainly not over,” according to the Associated Press. He added that reported cases are climbing in almost 70 countries in all regions — and that’s with a dramatic drop in testing rates around the globe. The Associated Press estimates that testing for the coronavirus has plummeted 70 to 90 percent between the first and second quarter of the year. “We lower our guard at our peril,” said Ghebreyesus. He recently noted that unique BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants are driving a surge in South Africa. Hindustan Times said that India recently confirmed its first cases of these particular subvariants, and they have been identified in the United States and United Kingdom as well.
Taking Extra Precautions
With numbers spiking right now, Jha is advising Americans who live in high transmission areas to take extra care. “I think we’re going to want to get that message out to people that in areas with high infection numbers, masking is going to be an important tool to keeping infections low and let us get through the fall in winter without substantial disruption,” he told PBS News Weekend. Schaffner warns that if you’re older, have an underlying illness (such as diabetes, heart disease, lung disease), or if you’re immunocompromised — even though you’re vaccinated — you should especially continue to be cautious. New York’s state health commissioner, Mary Bassett, added that we have the tools to keep these variants under control. “While these subvariants are new, the tools to combat them are not,” she said in a statement. “These tools will work if we each use them: get fully vaccinated and boosted, test following exposure, symptoms, or travel, consider wearing a mask in public indoor spaces, and consult with your healthcare provider about treatment if you test positive.” Keeping the variants from spreading is high priority even if they do only cause mild illness — more transmission means there is a greater likelihood of a more harmful variant developing. “If you have huge numbers of cases like we are seeing, the opportunity for even more variants is higher,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s COVID-19 technical lead, in a live Q&A session.
